British people are lucky, as they have a wealth of literature to read from, a rich history to learn from and a great number of world-leading experts to listen to. They also have a lot of selfish, ideologically-biased and intellectually dishonest politicians to listen to. Not that all politicians are dishonest, but many – if not all – have the need to survive elections and when facts do not support their bid for a seat in the parliament, many politicians are simply keen to alter the facts. And in this era of non-accountability, this strategy works perfectly. So, why do many people decide to ignore facts and live in a fantasy world narrated by politicians? Spoiler alert: no answer to this question.
In the dystopian world beautifully described by Orwell in his novel Nineteen Eighty-Four, the government alters recorded facts to make them fit with their policies and propaganda. For example, when the price of chocolate increases, the historical record of the price of chocolate is altered with higher prices; then people will have to take note that the price of chocolate has actually decreased in recent times. More importantly, in a society that respond with violence to those (‘enemies of the people’ and ‘saboteurs’) that do not conform with the ruler-engineered representation of reality, people will accept this contradiction between their own memory and what reality appears to be. But, importantly, they will eat less chocolate as the hard facts are… hard facts, even when they are ‘white, red and blue’.
Next year, the NHS will get an increased budget of £4 billions. Which is a great and greatly overdue news of course. The Tory MP and minister Andrea Leadsom commented “As we leave the European Union and stop paying significant annual subscriptions to Brussels, we will have more to spend on priorities such as the NHS”. Well, at least they spared us a new red bus at this round. Let’s be clear, NHS spending has nothing to do with the EU, it was a government decision to not increase budgets when needed, and it is a government decision to increase funding now. There is no money that was saved so far from the EU contributions and there will be no money for a while longer (facts). Even when funds will be released from EU commitments, people should be reminded that this will be just £8 billions a year, the net contribution of the UK to the EU budget, or ~1% for the UK government budget. This saving will be partially reabsorbed by investments in administrating functions currently devolved to the EU, including a custom infrastructure. Who can do sums know that the ‘EU dividend’ will be real but down to very little money. Moreover, notwithstanding the fact that the UK economy might flourish outside the EU, even with bright and smart politicians steering us in the right direction, all predictions are for short-term economical pain in the near future.
While the political debate will now focus on an imaginary ‘EU dividend’, I wished to remind myself and those two people that read this blog a few simple facts. If we neglected for a moment the bright imagination of Boris Johnson about EU policies, and the hatred of Nigel Farage for everything European, we might still remember that the UK did very well within the EU, growing economically more than others. We will never know if the UK could have done better, but we certainly know that the UK had a prosperous time within the EU.
Then the financial crisis struck. Make a long breath and repeat – slowly: ‘the financial crisis struck in 2008’. It was a decade ago and very little was done to improve how our economies work, meaning that other financial crises like the 2008 are possible (or likely?). Private debt is again massive, very little was done to reform the financial sector, almost nothing was done to recoup the huge financial resources legally hidden away or simply moved around by wealthy people and organizations. All this money that is syphoned away from the UK, it is money that does not go into public services. It is the lack of funds that get your surgery rescheduled several times, get you wait six hours at the emergency, or four hours for an ambulance, get you pay a lot of money to travel on slow trains, get schools struggling or your prospect for a decent pension low. All these ‘little’ things we ‘normal’ people we actually experience.
So, now repeat – calmly: ‘the financial crisis struck one decade ago’. Also repeat with me, quietly: ‘wealthy hedge fund managers such as Nigel Farage and Jacob Rees-Mogg told me that the EU is evil and I forgot that the financial crisis even happened’. Repeat that a few times. If you do not get angry or feel fooled, it is ok. The Farages, the Rees-Moggs, the inept politicians and the smart financers we do not actually know publically, swept under the carpet, a blue and yellow carpet called the EU, all the damage they have done.
When the financial crisis was unfolding, I feared an increase in xenophobia, tensions between states, the formation of new blocks of countries and seeding new wars. I grew-up and I was educated in Italy, another country with a rich history and literature. And, although I was never the perfect student and I can barely remember what I ate yesterday, I do know what happens from an historical perspective. We are on that horrifying trajectory. Social and political tension is increasing, and if there will be hints to more significant financial stress, I am afraid politicians and those powerful people that have access to them will need to burn the carpet and its hidden secrets.
Oceania, Eurasia and Eastasia in a perpetual war to conquer the disputed regions in Africa and Asia (1984), a tool of propaganda to distract people and resources, that is what politicians need next to cover-up the major fuck-ups that are engineering around the world.
People have a choice. People can choose right, left or centre governments. People can choose to be pro or against Brexit. But people have also a choice to speak about war or pretend that it is not a possibility. Perhaps not tomorrow, perhaps not next year, but people’s political choices, carefully influenced by seemingly inept and bizarre characters with somehow huge resources, are directing several Western-countries towards discord and tension. People have a choice, the choice between peace and war, the choice between selecting their representatives or been lead like sheep. So, sometimes, let’s forget about Brexit and the little sit-com characters it delivered. Let’s just focus on the bigger picture.
Within the EU or outside the EU, people in the UK will be responsible for their own decisions. Our political system, trying to survive, created one extremely dangerous situation. Soon or late, changing the record on the price of chocolate will work no longer. There will be two possibilities. The first is the one I would welcome, the one thought by an ‘optimist-me’ that prosperity for all of us is around the corner. That would be great. The second is that politicians will lose control, they will get us into another more powerful crisis, this time with no financial reserves, no political capital, no patience to leverage from people.
They will have only one way ahead, enflaming people souls, even more than now, and getting a big nice war to hide their pettiness. Now repeat calmly, after me: “I want no war, I want a life as a free man or woman”. Imagine yourself in the 1920s, in Germany, Italy, or any other European country of that period. Would you hail politicians on nationalist platforms to get your country first, to get back control, to reclaim sovereignty and prosperity for your people? Or would you warn people about the perils of populism and lack of cooperation among nations? Would you be an ‘innocent spectator’ not just of crimes ‘committed by a few’, but also of all the run-up to those more horrid years, that period during which everything got in motion? Then, repeat with me, with a bit of humility: ‘we need to fix the real problems, in our own country’ and shout this aloud to any politician that tells you that the price of chocolate has decreased, again.
P.S. These are just a few thoughts, clearly not a technical analysis. Of course, my opinion is largely shaped by the British political landscape and events, where I live for longer than a decade. However, I am equally critical of most of the events and politicians I follow, from Italy to USA passing through Germany and Turkey. All opinions expressed on this website are my own, even those more confined to my academic activities. I do not and I will not use this platform to share my political opinions too often. However, even though not known to the masses, because of my work I am somehow a public figure and – with no expectation that my words will make any difference – I could not refrain to declare publicly my worries about our society and our future. If we do not speak out against war, violence of any type, if we do not speak in favour of civil and human right, or against threats to our freedom, perhaps it is not worth speaking at all.